A qualitative process evaluation using the behaviour change wheel approach: Did a whole genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 within UK hospitals operate as anticipated?

PurposeTo conduct a process evaluation of a whole genome sequence report form (SRF) used to reduce nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 through changing infection prevention and control (IPC) behaviours. Here using qualitative behavioural analyses we report how the SRF worked. MethodsPrior to a multisite non-randomised trial of its effectiveness, the SRF was coded in relation to its putative behaviour change content (using the theoretical domains framework (TDF), the behaviour change wheel (BCW) and the behaviour change technique taxonomy (BCTTv1)). After the SRF had been used, through the peak of the Alpha variant, we conducted in-depth interviews from diverse professional staff (N=39) from a heterogeneous purposive sub-sample of hospital trial sites (n=5/14). Deductive thematic analysis explored participants accounts of using the SRF according to its putative content in addition to inductive exploration of their experiences. ResultsWe found empirical support for the putative theoretical mechanisms of Knowledge and Behavioural regulation, as well as for intervention functions of Education and Persuasion and Enablement, and for particular BCTs 1.2 Problem solving, 2.6 Biofeedback, 2.7 Feedback on outcomes of behaviour, and 7.1 Prompts and cues. Most participants found the SRF useful and believed it could shape IPC behaviour. ConclusionsOur process evaluation of the SRF provided granular and general support for the SRF working to change IPC behaviours. Our analysis highlighted useful SRF content. However, we also note that, without complementary work on systematically embedding the SRF within routine practice and wider hospital systems, it may not reach its full potential to reduce nosocomial infection. What is already known on this subject?O_LIHealth psychology remains under-exploited within infection prevention and control (IPC) interventions C_LIO_LIFor genomic insights to be understood by a range of health care professionals and elicit changes in IPC behaviour, ways of translating complex genomic insights into a simple format are needed. These simple translation tools can be described as whole genome sequence report forms (SRFs) C_LIO_LINothing is currently known about the use of SRFs, for SARS-CoV-2 or other infections, to change hospital-based IPC behaviour. C_LIO_LIHealth psychological tools such as the behaviour change wheel (BCW), the theoretical domains framework (TDF), and the behaviour change technique taxonomy (BCTTv1) are widely used to develop behaviour change interventions but are rarely used to evaluate them C_LIO_LIContemporary guidance on conducting process evaluations highlights the value of explicitly theorising how an intervention is intended to work before systematically examining how it actually worked in practice C_LI What does this study add?O_LIThe paper presents a novel worked example of using tools from health psychology within a qualitative process evaluation of using an SRF during the COVID-19 pandemic in UK hospitals C_LIO_LIThis paper is the first to report how people experienced using whole genome sequence report forms (SRFs) in order to change hospital-based IPC behaviour C_LIO_LIWe provide qualitative evidence detailing empirical support for much of the SRFs putative content, including casual mechanisms Knowledge and Behavioural regulation, intervention functions such as Education and Enablement, and for particular BCTs: 1.2 Problem solving, 2.6 Biofeedback, 2.7 Feedback on outcomes of behaviour, and 7.1 Prompts and cues C_LI

How acceptable is rapid whole genome sequencing for infectious disease management in hospitals? Perspectives of those involved in managing nosocomial SARS-CoV-2

Structured summaryO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSWhole genome sequencing (WGS) for managing healthcare associated infections (HCAIs) has developed considerably through experiences with SARS-CoV-2. We interviewed various healthcare professionals (HCPs) with direct experience of using WGS in hospitals (within the COG-UK Hospital Onset COVID-19 Infection (HOCI) study) to explore its acceptability and future use. MethodAn exploratory, cross-sectional, qualitative design employed semi-structured interviews with 39 diverse HCPs between December 2020 and June 2021. Participants were recruited from five sites within the larger clinical study of a novel genome sequencing reporting tool for SARS-CoV-2 (the HOCI study). All had experience, in their diverse roles, of using sequencing data to manage nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection. Deductive and inductive thematic analysis identified themes exploring aspects of the acceptability of sequencing. FindingsThe analysis highlighted the overall acceptability of rapid WGS for infectious disease using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study. Diverse professionals were largely very positive about its future use and believed that it could become a valuable and routine tool for managing HCAIs. We identified three key themes 1) Proof of concept achieved; 2) Novel insights and implications; and 3) Challenges and demands. ConclusionOur qualitative analysis, drawn from five diverse hospitals, shows the broad acceptability of rapid sequencing and its potential. Participants believed it could and should become an everyday technology capable of being embedded within typical hospital processes and systems. However, its future integration into existing healthcare systems will not be without challenges (e.g., resource, multi-level change) warranting further mixed methods research.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct outbreaks exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is stable among repeated serial samples from the same host, is transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Favipiravir, lopinavir-ritonavir or combination therapy (FLARE): a randomised, double blind, 2x2 factorial placebo-controlled trial of early antiviral therapy in COVID-19

BackgroundEarly antiviral treatment is effective for COVID-19 but currently available agents are expensive. Favipiravir is routinely used in many countries, but efficacy is unproven. Antiviral combinations have not been systematically studied. We aimed to evaluate the effect of favipiravir, lopinavir-ritonavir or the combination of both agents on SARS-CoV-2 viral load trajectory when administered early. MethodsWe conducted a Phase 2, proof of principle, randomised, placebo-controlled, 2x2 factorial, double-blind trial of outpatients with early COVID-19 (within 7 days of symptom onset) at two sites in the United Kingdom. Participants were randomised using a centralised online process to receive: favipiravir (1800mg twice daily on Day 1 followed by 400mg four times daily on Days 2-7) plus lopinavir-ritonavir (400mg/100mg twice daily on Day 1, followed by 200mg/50mg four times daily on Days 2-7); favipiravir plus lopinavir-ritonavir placebo; lopinavir-ritonavir plus favipiravir placebo; or both placebos. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 viral load at Day 5, accounting for baseline viral load. ClinicalTrials{middle dot}gov: NCT04499677. FindingsBetween 6 October 2020 and 4 November 2021, we recruited 240 participants. For the favipiravir+lopinavir-ritonavir, favipiravir+placebo, lopinavir-ritonavir+placebo and placebo-only arms, we recruited 61, 59, 60 and 60 participants and analysed 55, 56, 55 and 58 participants respectively who provided viral load measures at Day 1 and Day 5. In the primary analysis, the mean viral load in the favipiravir+placebo arm had decreased by 0.57 log10 (95% CI -1.21 to 0.07, p=0.08) and in the lopinavir-ritonavir+placebo arm by 0.18 log10 (95% CI -0.82 to 0.46, p=0.58) more than in the placebo arm at Day 5. There was no significant interaction between favipiravir and lopinavir-ritonavir (interaction coefficient term: 0.59 log10, 95% CI -0.32 to 1.50, p=0.20). More participants had undetectable virus at Day 5 in the favipiravir+placebo arm compared to placebo only (46.3% vs 26.9%, odds ratio (OR): 2.47, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.65; p=0.03). Adverse events were observed more frequently with lopinavir-ritonavir, mainly gastrointestinal disturbance. Favipiravir drug levels were lower in the combination arm than the favipiravir monotherapy arm. InterpretationAt the current doses, no treatment significantly reduced viral load in the primary analysis. Favipiravir requires further evaluation with consideration of dose escalation. Lopinavir-ritonavir administration was associated with lower plasma favipiravir concentrations. FundingLifeArc, UK.

Evaluating the effectiveness of rapid SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing in supporting infection control teams: the COG-UK hospital-onset COVID-19 infection study

IntroductionViral sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been used for outbreak investigation, but there is limited evidence supporting routine use for infection prevention and control (IPC) within hospital settings. MethodsWe conducted a prospective non-randomised trial of sequencing at 14 acute UK hospital trusts. Sites each had a 4-week baseline data-collection period, followed by intervention periods comprising 8 weeks of rapid (<48h) and 4 weeks of longer-turnaround (5-10 day) sequencing using a sequence reporting tool (SRT). Data were collected on all hospital onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs; detected [≥]48h from admission). The impact of the sequencing intervention on IPC knowledge and actions, and on incidence of probable/definite hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) was evaluated. ResultsA total of 2170 HOCI cases were recorded from October 2020-April 2021, with sequence reports returned for 650/1320 (49.2%) during intervention phases. We did not detect a statistically significant change in weekly incidence of HAIs in longer-turnaround (IRR 1.60, 95%CI 0.85-3.01; P=0.14) or rapid (0.85, 0.48-1.50; P=0.54) intervention phases compared to baseline phase. However, IPC practice was changed in 7.8% and 7.4% of all HOCI cases in rapid and longer-turnaround phases, respectively, and 17.2% and 11.6% of cases where the report was returned. In a per-protocol sensitivity analysis there was an impact on IPC actions in 20.7% of HOCI cases when the SRT report was returned within 5 days. ConclusionWhile we did not demonstrate a direct impact of sequencing on the incidence of nosocomial transmission, our results suggest that sequencing can inform IPC response to HOCIs, particularly when returned within 5 days.

Predicted Norovirus Resurgence in 2021-2022 Due to the Relaxation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Associated with COVID-19 Restrictions in England: A Mathematical Modelling Study

BackgroundTo reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. MethodsHere we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. ResultsWe report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. ConclusionsContinued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 is associated with greater disease severity among hospitalised women but not men

BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage B.1.1.7 has been associated with an increased rate of transmission and disease severity among subjects testing positive in the community. Its impact on hospitalised patients is less well documented. MethodsWe collected viral sequences and clinical data of patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs), sampled 16/11/2020 - 10/01/2021, from eight hospitals participating in the COG-UK-HOCI study. Associations between the variant and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission were evaluated using mixed effects Cox models adjusted by age, sex, comorbidities, care home residence, pregnancy and ethnicity. ResultsSequences were obtained from 2341 inpatients (HOCI cases = 786) and analysis of clinical outcomes was carried out in 2147 inpatients with all data available. The hazard ratio (HR) for mortality of B.1.1.7 compared to other lineages was 1.01 (95% CI 0.79-1.28, P=0.94) and for ITU admission was 1.01 (95% CI 0.75-1.37, P=0.96). Analysis of sex-specific effects of B.1.1.7 identified increased risk of mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.95-1.78) and ITU admission (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15-2.90) in females infected with the variant but not males (mortality HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.61-1.10; ITU HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.52-1.04). ConclusionsIn common with smaller studies of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 we did not find an overall increase in mortality or ITU admission associated with B.1.1.7 compared to other lineages. However, women with B.1.1.7 may be at an increased risk of admission to intensive care and at modestly increased risk of mortality.

Protocol for the COG-UK hospital onset COVID-19 infection (HOCI) multicentre interventional clinical study: evaluating the efficacy of rapid genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in limiting the spread of COVID-19 in United Kingdom NHS hospitals

IntroductionNosocomial transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been a significant cause of mortality in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of rapid whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, supported by a novel probabilistic reporting methodology, to inform infection prevention and control (IPC) practice within NHS hospital settings. Methods and analysisCOG-UK HOCI (COG-UK Consortium Hospital-Onset COVID-19 Infections study) is a multicentre, prospective, interventional, superiority study. Eligible patients must be admitted to hospital with first confirmed SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive test result >48h from time of admission, where COVID-19 diagnosis was not suspected upon admission. The projected sample size for 14 participating sites covering all study phases over winter-spring 2020/2021 in the United Kingdom is 2,380 patients. The intervention is the return of a sequence report, within 48 hours in one phase (rapid local lab) and within 5-10 days in a second phase (mimicking central lab use), comparing the viral genome from an eligible study participant with others within and outside the hospital site. The primary outcomes are the incidence of Public Health England (PHE)/IPC-defined SARS-CoV-2 hospital-acquired infection during the baseline and two interventional phases, and proportion of hospital-onset cases with genomic evidence of transmission linkage following implementation of the intervention where such linkage was not suspected by initial IPC investigation. Secondary outcomes include incidence of hospital outbreaks, with and without sequencing data; actual and desirable changes to IPC actions; periods of healthcare worker (HCW) absence. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews with HCWs will be conducted alongside the study and analysis, underpinned by iterative programme theory of the sequence report. Health economic analysis will be conducted to determine cost-benefit of the intervention, and whether this leads to economic advantages within the NHS setting. Ethics and disseminationThe protocol has been approved by the National Research Ethics Service Committee (Cambridge South 20/EE/0118). This manuscript is based on version 5.0 of the protocol. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications. Study Registration numberISRCTN50212645 Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIThe COG-UK HOCI study harnesses the infrastructure of the UKs existing national COVID-19 genome sequencing platform to evaluate the specific benefit of sequencing to hospital infection control. C_LIO_LIThe evaluation is thought to be the first interventional study globally to assess effectiveness of genomic sequencing for infection control in an unbiased patient selection in secondary care settings. C_LIO_LIA range of institutional settings will participate, from specialist NHS-embedded or academic centres experienced in using pathogen genomics to district general hospitals. C_LIO_LIThe findings are likely to have wider applicability in future decisions to utilise genome sequencing for infection control of other pathogens (such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, norovirus, clostridium difficile and antimicrobial resistant pathogens) in secondary care settings. C_LIO_LIThe study has been awarded UK NIHR Urgent Public Health status, ensuring prioritised access to NIHR Clinical Research Network (CRN) research staff to recruit patients. C_LIO_LIThe study does not have a randomised controlled design due to the logistics of managing this against diverse standard practice. C_LI

Reliability of Spike Gene Target Failure for ascertaining SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 prevalence in a hospital setting

The appearance of the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in the UK in late 2020, associated with faster transmission, sparked the need to find effective ways to monitor its spread. The set of mutations that characterise this lineage include a deletion in position 69 and 70 of the spike protein, which is known to be associated with Spike Gene Target Failure (SGTF) in a commonly used three gene diagnostic qPCR assay. The lower cost and faster turnaround times compared to whole genome sequencing make the use of qPCR for monitoring of the variant spread an attractive proposition. However, there are several potential issues with this approach. Here we use 826 SARS-CoV-2 samples collected in a hospital setting as part of the Hospital Onset COVID Infection (HOCI) study where qPCR was used for viral detection, followed by whole genome sequencing (WGS), to identify the factors to consider when using SGTF to infer lineage B.1.1.7 prevalence in a hospital setting, with potential implications for locations where this variant has recently been introduced.

Molnupiravir (EIDD-2801) inhibits SARS-CoV2 replication in Syrian hamsters model

Favipiravir and Molnupiravir, orally available antivirals, have been reported to exert antiviral activity against SARS-CoV2. In recent days preliminary efficacy data have been reported in COVID-19 patients. We here studied the combined antiviral effect of the drugs in the SARS-CoV2 hamster infection model. We first demonstrate that Molnupiravir can reduce infectious virus titers in lungs of infected animals in a dose-dependent manner by up to 3.5 log10 which is associated with a marked improvement of virus-induced lung pathology. When animals are treated with a combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir (that each alone result in respectively a 1.3 log10 and 1.1 log10 reduction of infectious virus titers in the lungs), a marked combined potency is observed. Infectious virus titers in the lungs of animals treated with the combo are on average reduced by 4.5 log10 and infectious virus are no longer detected in the lungs of 60% of treated infected animals. Both drugs result in an increased mutation frequency of the remaining viral RNA recovered from the lungs. In the combo-treated hamsters an increased frequency of C-to-T and G-to-A mutations in the viral RNA is observed as compared to the single treatment groups which may explain the pronounced antiviral potency of the combination. Our findings may lay the basis for the design of clinical studies to test the efficacy of the combination of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir in the treatment of COVID-19.

Long-Term Persistence of Spike Antibody and Predictive Modeling of Antibody Dynamics Following Infection with SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundAntibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been shown to neutralize the virus in-vitro. Similarly, animal challenge models suggest that neutralizing antibodies isolated from SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals prevent against disease upon re-exposure to the virus. Understanding the nature and duration of the antibody response following SARS-CoV-2 infection is therefore critically important. MethodsBetween April and October 2020 we undertook a prospective cohort study of 3555 healthcare workers in order to elucidate the duration and dynamics of antibody responses following infection with SARS-CoV-2. After a formal performance evaluation against 169 PCR confirmed cases and negative controls, the Meso-Scale Discovery assay was used to quantify in parallel, antibody titers to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein (N), spike (S) protein and the receptor-binding-domain (RBD) of the S-protein. All seropositive participants were followed up monthly for a maximum of 7 months; those participants that were symptomatic, with known dates of symptom-onset, seropositive by the MSD assay and who provided 2 or more monthly samples were included in the analysis. Survival analysis was used to determine the proportion of sero-reversion (switching from positive to negative) from the raw data. In order to predict long-term antibody dynamics, two hierarchical longitudinal Gamma models were implemented to provide predictions for the lower bound (continuous antibody decay to zero, "Gamma-decay") and upper bound (decay-to-plateau due to long lived plasma cells, "Gamma-plateau") long-term antibody titers. ResultsA total of 1163 samples were provided from 349 of 3555 recruited participants who were symptomatic, seropositive by the MSD assay, and were followed up with 2 or more monthly samples. At 200 days post symptom onset, 99% of participants had detectable S-antibody whereas only 75% of participants had detectable N-antibody. Even under our most pessimistic assumption of persistent negative exponential decay, the S-antibody was predicted to remain detectable in 95% of participants until 465 days [95% CI 370-575] after symptom onset. Under the Gamma-plateau model, the entire posterior distribution of S-antibody titers at plateau remained above the threshold for detection indefinitely. Surrogate neutralization assays demonstrated a strong positive correlation between antibody titers to the S-protein and blocking of the ACE-2 receptor in-vitro [R2=0.72, p<0.001]. By contrast, the N-antibody waned rapidly with a half-life of 60 days [95% CI 52-68]. DiscussionThis study has demonstrated persistence of the spike antibody in 99% of participants at 200 days following SARS-CoV-2 symptoms and rapid decay of the nucleoprotein antibody. Diagnostic tests or studies that rely on the N-antibody as a measure of seroprevalence must be interpreted with caution. Our lowest bound prediction for duration of the spike antibody was 465 days and our upper bound predicted spike antibody to remain indefinitely in line with the long-term seropositivity reported for SARS-CoV infection. The long-term persistence of the S-antibody, together with the strong positive correlation between the S-antibody and viral surrogate neutralization in-vitro, has important implications for the duration of functional immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Remdesivir induced viral RNA and subgenomic RNA suppression, and evolution of viral variants in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients.

While changes in SARS-CoV-2 viral load over time have been documented, detailed information on the impact of remdesivir and how it might alter intra-host viral evolution is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 recovered from the upper respiratory tract of hospitalised children revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral RNA levels in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain. Evidence of drug resistance to explain this difference was not found. Reduced levels of subgenomic (sg) RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication that is independent of viral RNA levels. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. We conclude that these are likely to have arisen from within-host evolution, and not co-transmission, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Sample-to-sample heterogeneity in the abundances of variant genotypes is best explained by the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalisation is well described in serious lung infections caused by influenza and Mycobacterium tuberculosis and has been associated with poor drug penetration, suboptimal treatment and drug resistance. Our data provide evidence that remdesivir is able to suppress SARS-CoV-2 replication in vivo but that its efficacy may be compromised by factors reducing penetration into the lung. Based on data from influenza and Mycobacterium tuberculosis lung infections we conclude that early use of remdesivir combined with other agents should now be evaluated. Summary SentenceDeep sequencing of longitudinal samples from SARS-CoV-2 infected paediatric patients identifies evidence of remdesivir-associated inhibition of viral replication in vivo and uncovers evidence of within host evolution of distinct viral genotypes.

Systematic review and patient-level meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics to model response to antiviral therapies

SARS-CoV-2 viral loads change rapidly following symptom onset so to assess antivirals it is important to understand the natural history and patient factors influencing this. We undertook an individual patient-level meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics in humans to describe viral dynamics and estimate the effects of antivirals used to-date. This systematic review identified case reports, case series and clinical trial data from publications between 1/1/2020 and 31/5/2020 following PRISMA guidelines. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model (Cox-PH) of time to viral clearance was fitted to respiratory and stool samples. A simplified four parameter nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model was fitted to viral load trajectories in all sampling sites and covariate modelling of respiratory viral dynamics was performed to quantify time dependent drug effects. Patient-level data from 645 individuals (age 1 month-100 years) with 6316 viral loads were extracted. Model-based simulations of viral load trajectories in samples from the upper and lower respiratory tract, stool, blood, urine, ocular secretions and breast milk were generated. Cox-PH modelling showed longer time to viral clearance in older patients, males and those with more severe disease. Remdesivir was associated with faster viral clearance (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 9.19, p<0.001), as well as interferon, particularly when combined with ribavirin (AHR = 2.2, p=0.015; AHR = 6.04, p = 0.006). Combination therapy should be further investigated. A viral dynamic dataset and NLME model for designing and analysing antiviral trials has been established.

Humoral Response Dynamics Following Infection with SARS-CoV-2

IntroductionSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) specific antibodies have been shown to neutralize the virus in-vitro. Understanding antibody dynamics following SARS-CoV-2 infection is therefore crucial. Sensitive measurement of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is also vital for large seroprevalence surveys which inform government policies and public health interventions. However, rapidly waning antibodies following SARS-CoV-2 infection could jeopardize the sensitivity of serological testing on which these surveys depend. MethodsThis prospective cohort study of SARS-CoV-2 humoral dynamics in a central London hospital analyzed 137 serial samples collected from 67 participants seropositive to SARS-CoV-2 by the Meso-Scale Discovery assay. Antibody titers were quantified to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein (N), spike (S-)protein and the receptor-binding-domain (RBD) of the S-protein. Titers were log-transformed and a multivariate log-linear model with time-since-infection and clinical variables was fitted by Bayesian methods. ResultsThe mean estimated half-life of the N-antibody was 52 days (95% CI 42-65). The S- and RBD-antibody had significantly longer mean half-lives of 81 days (95% CI 61-111) and 83 days (95% CI 55-137) respectively. An ACE-2-receptor competition assay demonstrated significant correlation between the S and RBD-antibody titers and ACE2-receptor blocking in-vitro. The time-to-a-negative N-antibody test for 50% of the seropositive population was predicted to be 195 days (95% CI 163-236). DiscussionAfter SARS-CoV-2 infection, the predicted half-life of N-antibody was 52 days with 50% of seropositive participants becoming seronegative to this antibody at 195 days. Widely used serological tests that depend on the N-antibody will therefore significantly underestimate the prevalence of infection following the majority of infections. Significance statementWe believe that our study has significant and urgent public health and translational impact. Firstly, our findings demonstrate that the half-life of the SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein antibody is only 52 days. This has immediate and important implications for large-scale seroprevalence surveys, government policy and mathematical modelling predictions which rely on serological tests that target this antibody. Secondly, the slower decay of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibody identified in this study makes assays to the spike protein a more reliable target for serological assays in the longer term. We demonstrate a strong positive linear correlation between spike/RBD antibody and ACE-2 receptor binding in vitro. Our findings are therefore likely to reflect the time to loss of a functional antibody response in SARS-CoV-2. FundingGOSH charity, Wellcome Trust (201470/Z/16/Z and 220565/Z/20/Z). GOSH NIHR Funded Biomedical Research Centre. Trial registration numberNCT04380896.

No evidence of viral polymorphisms associated with Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Temporally Associated With SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS).

Generally, children and teenagers do not become seriously ill with COVID-19. However, in countries with high rates of coronavirus disease, children with the syndrome COVID-19 associated inflammation syndrome referred to as PIMS-TS have been reported. Similarities noted between SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein sequences and those of other super antigens has prompted the suggestion that this might be the mechanism by SARS-CoV-ST triggers PIMS-TS. It has also been suggested that the D614G variant found more commonly in the US and across European countries may explain why PIMS-TS appears to be common in these countries. Here we analysed viral sequences from 13 paediatric COVID-19 patients of whom five were diagnosed with PIMS-TS. This is the first characterisation of viruses from PIMS-TS patients. In contrast to what has been hypothesised, we found no evidence of unique sequences associated with the viruses from PIMS-TS patients.

SARS-CoV-2 genomes recovered by long amplicon tiling multiplex approach using nanopore sequencing and applicable to other sequencing platforms

Genomic surveillance has become a useful tool for better understanding virus pathogenicity, origin and spread. Obtaining accurately assembled, complete viral genomes directly from clinical samples is still a challenging. Here, we describe three protocols using a unique primer set designed to recover long reads of SARS-CoV-2 directly from total RNA extracted from clinical samples. This protocol is useful, accessible and adaptable to laboratories with varying resources and access to distinct sequencing methods: Nanopore, Illumina and/or Sanger.